On October 3, 2024, Governor Boris Vujčić held a presentation at the 12th Annual Conference of the Bilateral Assistance and Capacity Building for Central Banks (BCC) "Monetary Policy in a Changed Environment".
CNB's Governor in his presentation delves into the factors that will drive inflation in the next decade and beyond, exploring both inflationary and disinflationary forces that will shape the future economic landscape. The Governor pointed out that the post-pandemic inflation surge is now largely behind us; it is time to turn our attention to the factors likely to shape inflation forces over the longer horizon. While commodity prices and the cyclical gyrations of economic activity account for the bulk of month-to-month price variations, the importance of structural factors, affecting price trends in a gradual but potentially highly persistent manner, may have increased. Globalization, digitalization, and demography are some of the structural factors traditionally associated with longer-term inflation cycles. These may now be supplemented by climate change and the need to adapt our economies to a changing environment.