On 27 November 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) released updated statistical climate change indicators designed to enhance the financial sector's ability to assess developments in sustainable finance as well as transition and physical climate risks. For the first time, this release also includes climate change indicators for the Republic of Croatia.

The indicators cover three areas: sustainable finance, carbon emissions and physical risk. Climate change indicators for sustainable finance are, in terms of quality, at the level of official statistics indicators and refer to issuances and holdings of sustainable debt securities. Carbon emissions, transition risk and physical risk indicators are qualitatively at the level of analytical indicators. Carbon emissions and transition risk indicators provide information on carbon intensity in securities and loan portfolios of financial institutions, while physical risk indicators cover risks arising from natural hazards resulting from climate change and measure the impact of these risks on financial institutions.

Advanced methodology, new datasets and adjustments to reflect inflation effects ensure a more precise tracking of decarbonisation efforts and the intensifying impact of damages resulting from climate-related hazards.

Sustainable finance indicators

The indicators on issuances and holdings of sustainable debt securities in the euro area are designed to offer a comprehensive view of the funds raised to support sustainable projects, while also capturing the growing demand for such instruments as investment opportunities. They bring greater transparency to financial markets and support the inclusion of climate change considerations into the ECB’s monetary policy, policies aimed at safeguarding financial stability and economic analyses.

The indicators are based on the following classification of sustainable debt securities:

• Green – debt securities where the proceeds are used to finance projects with clear environmental benefits.
• Social – debt securities where the proceeds are used to finance projects that address social issues and seek to achieve positive social outcomes.
• Sustainability – debt securities where the proceeds are used to finance a combination of booth green and social projects.
• Sustainability-linked – debt securities for which the financial and/or structural characteristics can vary depending on whether the issuer achieves predefined environmental, social and governance (ESG) sustainability objectives.

Since their launch, sustainable finance indicators have been repeatedly enriched to offer deeper insights into the market for sustainable finance and to better serve policymakers, market participants and analysts.

Data on sustainable debt securities are published for two levels of assurance: i) instruments with a second party opinion (SPO) validating the sustainability claims of the issuer, and ii) all sustainable instruments, i.e. with all degrees of assurance, including also only self-labelled instruments. Sustainable finance indicators are published as official European System of Central Banks (ESCB) statistics.

Overview of sustainable finance indicators with a focus on Croatia

The outstanding amount of issued green debt securities varies significantly across euro area countries. This market is still under development in the Republic of Croatia, with the outstanding amount of green debt securities standing at EUR 400 million at the end of September 2025 (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Issuances of green debt securities in the Republic of Croatia and selected euro area countries

Source: ECB’s Securities Issues Statistics (CSEC), derived from the Centralised Securities Database (CSDB).
Note: Data on green debt securities refer to instruments with all degrees of assurance, including also only self-labelled instruments.

Holdings of sustainable securities on domestic and international capital markets by residents of the Republic of Croatia (Figure 2) have increased in all categories of sustainable debt securities. The most intense increase in holdings was observed for sustainability-linked debt securities (from EUR 28.7m at the end of the first quarter of 2023 to EUR 358.7m at the end of the second quarter of 2025). The share of holdings of sustainable debt securities in total holdings of all debt securities has also trended up and stood at 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025.

Figure 2 Holdings of sustainable debt securities by residents of the Republic of Croatia

Source: ECB’s Securities Holding Statistics by Sector (SHSS).
Notes: The share in total holdings refers to the share of holdings of all categories of sustainable debt securities in total holdings by residents of the Republic of Croatia of debt securities issued on domestic and international capital markets. Data on sustainable debt securities refer to instruments with all degrees of assurance, including also only self-labelled instruments.

Analytical indicators on carbon emissions and transition risk

Carbon emissions and transition risk indicators provide information on the carbon intensity of the securities and loan portfolios of financial institutions and on the financial sector’s exposure to counterparties with carbon-intensive business models. These indicators help users to assess the role of the financial sector in financing carbon-related activities and to evaluate the associated transition risks.

The calculation of carbon emissions indicators is based on various data sources and methodologies:

• Securities-based carbon emissions indicators (including listed shares and debt securities) are derived from the Securities Holding Statistics by Sector (SHSS) and are calculated at consolidated level for holdings by financial institutions^[1] of the issuances of non-financial corporations and captive financial institutions and lenders.
• Indicators for carbon emissions financed through loans to euro area counterparties are based on the AnaCredit (AnaC) dataset, which contains detailed information on individual credit exposures of credit institutions in the euro area and the credit risk of debtors – legal entities, and are calculated at single entity (non-financial corporation) level and consolidated group level^[2] for issuances of non-financial corporations and captive financial institutions and lenders.

Other sources used to compile the indicators include the Register of Institutions and Affiliates Data (RIAD) and the Centralised Securities Database (CSDB).

Since their introduction in January 2023, climate change indicators have undergone various improvements. For example, the coverage of data has been significantly increased using additional imputation approaches. The indicators for loans at single entity level now cover 85% of outstanding debt held by euro area credit institutions, with even higher coverage for their securities portfolios. The methods currently applied for imputation are relatively simple, and some missing data are filled in using medians at various breakdowns.

The indicators are provided in balanced and unbalanced samples. The balanced sample offers more statistically sound approach and reliable results since it takes into account transaction developments towards counterparties while controlling for missing data.

The latest release of carbon emissions indicators introduces notable methodological enhancements. Nowcasting techniques have been implemented for securities-based indicators, so that these series now include the estimation of indicators up to the end of 2024. The methodology is currently undergoing further developments to see if nowcasting could be extended to indicators of loan-financed carbon emissions.

The time series decomposition methodology has been refined and expanded to offer greater detail regarding the drivers of change in aggregate indicators. In the previous publication, the indicators were decomposed solely into primary components (such as emissions, revenues and exposure), while the updated data further break down these components. For example, in the case of weighted average carbon intensity, it is now possible to isolate the impact of inflation on the year-on-year change in the indicator.

The coverage of institutional sectors in both loan and securities portfolios has also been expanded to reflect the true exposure of portfolios more accurately. This includes the addition of captive financial institutions to the sample of issuers or debtors, given their primary role in securing funding for non-financial corporations. Additionally, aggregated balance sheet item statistics are used to increase coverage of loans beyond the scope of the AnaCredit dataset.

Despite these improvements, gaps remain in the reporting of carbon emissions data and, to a lesser extent, financial data for certain issuers and debtors. In addition, the coverage of data varies over time and across instruments and countries. As a result, direct comparisons between indicators on securities and loans or across countries should be treated with caution.

In view of these caveats, carbon emissions indicators covering securities and loan portfolios are published as analytical indicators for the time being.

Overview of indicators on carbon emissions and transition risk with a focus on Croatia

Carbon emissions by non-financial corporations can be linked to the financing provided to them through both equity and debt securities they issue and the loans they receive. On the other hand, holders of securities and creditors in the financial sector finance these emissions via the respective funding channels.

The financed emissions (FE) indicator provides information on the financing of high-emitting economic activities. It tracks the amount of total carbon emissions from non-financial corporations that can be linked to funding from financial institutions, based on a set of securities and loan portfolios.

The carbon intensity (CI) indicator represents the ratio of financed emissions to invested revenue, where the invested revenue refers to a part of total revenue of a non-financial corporation (debtor/issuer) which is proportional to the share of investments made by financial institutions through loans or securities in the total value of that corporation.

Weighted average carbon intensity (WACI) refers to the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to total revenues of each debtor/issuer, weighted by the share of creditor’s/holder’s investment in that debtor/issuer in its total investment portfolio. As opposed to financed emissions, the weighted average carbon intensity uses the total investment portfolio value of the creditor/security holder and thus serves as a proxy for the exposure of a creditor/holder to transition climate risk.

Carbon footprint (CFP) represents the ratio of financed emissions to total investment portfolio of financial institutions.

The indicators of carbon emissions in banks’ loan portfolios for the Republic of Croatia are available for 2023. According to the financed emissions indicator, direct Scope 1 emissions financed by loans from credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia in 2023 amount to 717.3 thousand tCO₂ eq.^[3], while at the consolidated level, these emissions stand at 606.1 thousand tCO₂ eq. (Figure 3, panel a)). Carbon intensity and carbon footprint indicators for the Republic of Croatia also show lower values at consolidated level than at the single entity (non-financial corporations) level (Figure 3, panel b)). In 2023, the weighted average carbon intensity adjusted for inflation at the single entity level stood at approximately 121.7 tCO₂ eq. per million EUR of revenue, while at the consolidated level, this indicator stood at 52.2 tCO₂ eq. per million EUR of revenue. In the euro area^[4], this indicator was lower at the single non-financial corporations level in 2023 and stood at 109.2, while it was higher at consolidated level and amounted to 76.5 tCO₂ eq. per million EUR of revenue.

Figure 3 Carbon emissions indicators for loan portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia in 2023

a) financed emissions

b) carbon intensity and carbon footprint

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from AnaC, RIAD, EU Emissions Trading System, Eurostat air emissions and data from Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).
Note: Weighted average carbon intensity is adjusted for inflation and exchange rate.

Carbon emissions indicators for securities portfolios of credit institutions at consolidated level are available for the Republic of Croatia as a time series for 2018–2024, with the value for 2024 being a nowcasted estimate. In 2024, financed direct emissions (Scope 1) in the securities portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia at consolidated level decreased by a total of 11.6% from the levels recorded in 2018, even though they trended up in the period from 2019 to 2021 (Figure 4, panel a)). Carbon intensity and carbon footprint indicators also declined in 2024 from 2018, while adjusted average carbon intensity adjusted for inflation has been continuously declining since 2020 (Figure 4, panel b)).

Figure 4 Carbon emissions indicators for securities portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia at consolidated level

a) financed emissions

b) carbon intensity and carbon footprint

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from RIAD, CSDB, SHSS and ISS.
Notes: Securities include listed shares and equity securities. Weighted average carbon intensity is adjusted for inflation and exchange rate.

Analytical indicators of physical climate risks

Global warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather events. The resulting damage can have a significant impact on the stability of the financial system. Non-financial corporations affected by flooding or droughts might face debt servicing difficulties. In addition, the underlying collateral, such as buildings or land, might suddenly lose value.

Physical risk indicators take into account risks stemming from climate change-induced hazards and consider how these risks affect firms’ ability to repay loans and bonds, and the performance of their equity. Physical risk indicators cover coastal flooding, river flooding, wildfires, landslides, subsidence, windstorms, water stress, droughts and rainfall variation^[5].

The indicators are calculated by considering climate scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)^[6]. The pathways model future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories.

With the latest data release, the indicators of physical risks from windstorms and water stress have been improved through the integration of more reliable and accurate hazard risk estimates. The indicator of physical risk from windstorms is now based on a new dataset from Copernicus, which provides more up-to-date information and extends data coverage from just the winter season to year-round and includes additional types of storms and more up-to-date events. The indicator of physical risk from water stress relies on the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct dataset, which features advanced hydrological modelling and incorporates updated climate scenarios based on the latest models.

Significant improvements have been made to better measure the potential damage to corporate assets from acute hazards. Previous assessments focused mainly on companies’ tangible fixed assets, such as buildings and plants, while damage assessments now also include inventories, such as raw materials, work-in-progress goods and finished goods, as these can also incur losses. Additionally, for flooding, building height is now taken into account, enabling a more precise modelling of damage, given that damage is typically concentrated in lower storeys.

Compiling the physical risk indicators is subject to data-related limitations. In particular, these limitations include a lack of suitable data to identify all relevant locations of firms’ physical assets and their vulnerability to hazards. Given that the data are continually being improved with each release, physical risk indicators are classified as analytical indicators.

The compilation framework for the indicators makes use of statistical methodologies that are usually applied to larger samples, and thus the framework should not be directly applied to single entities (e.g. a specific firm). The developers of climate models have also cautioned against applying them at the local level, as the models are constructed with larger geographical areas in mind.

Overview of physical risk indicators with a focus on Croatia

Four types of physical risk indicators have been developed for the portfolios of financial institutions toward non-financial corporations. Two of these indicators are based on physical risk level categories: risk scores (RS) and potential exposure at risk (PEAR). The other two indicators – normalised exposure at risk (NEAR) and collateral-adjusted exposure at risk (CEAR) – are based on estimates of expected losses. All metrics are presented as a percentage of the portfolio and in monetary values.

Indicators based on physical risk level categories

Risk scores (RS) sort portfolio exposures to physical risk according to the location of the debtor, with locations being assigned a score from 0 (no risk) to 3 (high risk). The potential exposure at risk (PEAR) indicator is formulated as a sum of positive risk scores related to a specific hazard. PEAR reveals financial exposure to debtors in at-risk areas regardless of the intensity or frequency of the hazard.

The geographical prevalence of each hazard largely determines financial institutions’ exposure to risk. However, acute hazards with a localised impact still have the potential to cause significantly greater physical damage despite their restricted spatial extent.

Risk score categories are not directly comparable across hazard types, as they rely on differing methodological assumptions. However, they do provide valuable insights for assessing relative risk levels across countries and climate scenarios, as well as variations within individual hazards.

Under the high-emission climate scenario (RCP8.5), the total portfolio of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia is potentially exposed to hazards related to precipitation and water stress, while 26% of the portfolio is potentially exposed to wildfire risk (Figure 5). Risk scores (low, moderate and high risk) for individual hazards are not shown due to data confidentiality. It should be noted that the entire potentially exposed portfolio value for individual hazards is not exposed to the same level of risk – part of the portfolio value is exposed to low risk, part to moderate risk and part to high risk of hazard.

Figure 5 Potential exposure of portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia to hazard risks across different climate scenarios

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from AnaC, RIAD, SHSS, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Interactive Atlas, and data from the World Resource Institute.
Notes: The reference period is December 2024. Portfolio exposures cover loans, debt securities and equity portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia vis-à‑vis non-financial corporations. Financial institutions include deposit-taking corporations except central banks (S122), non-money market fund investment funds (S124), insurance corporations (S128) and pension funds (S129).

For three hazard types – landslides, subsidence and windstorms – only historical data are currently available, meaning they lack forward-looking dimension. A significant portion of portfolio of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia is exposed to subsidence risk (EUR 15.6bn or 73% of the portfolio), while the portion of the portfolio exposed to windstorm and landslide risks is much smaller (Figure 6).

Figure 6 Potential exposure of portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia to hazard risks in a historical scenario

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from AnaC, RIAD, SHSS, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Interactive Atlas, and the World Resource Institute, Joint Research Centre and Copernicus.
Notes: The reference period is December 2024. Portfolio exposures cover loans, debt securities and equity portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia vis-à‑vis non-financial corporations. Financial institutions include deposit-taking corporations except central banks (S122), non-money market fund investment funds (S124), insurance corporations (S128) and pension funds (S129).

Figure 7 shows the effect of climate adaptation strategies on the risk of flooding. Regardless of whether the moderate or high-risk scenarios are considered, the potential exposure of the portfolio of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia to coastal flooding risk is negligible relative to river flooding risk. For example, under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) with projections until the end of the 21st century, a total of 13% of the portfolio of the financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia is potentially exposed to river flooding risk (EUR 2.7bn) (Figure 7, panel b)), while less than 1% of their portfolio (EUR 20m) is exposed to coastal flooding risk under the same scenario (Figure 7, panel a)).

Figure 7 Potential exposure of portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia to flooding risk across different climate scenarios

a) coastal flooding

b) river flooding

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from AnaC, RIAD, SHSS, Delft University of Technology and Joint Research Centre.
Notes: The reference period is December 2024. Portfolio exposures cover loans, debt securities and equity portfolios of financial institutions in the Republic of Croatia vis-à‑vis non-financial corporations. Financial institutions include deposit-taking corporations except central banks (S122), non-money market fund investment funds (S124), insurance corporations (S128) and pension funds (S129).

Indicators based on estimates of expected losses

The normalised exposure at risk (NEAR) indicator measures the losses that financial institutions are expected to incur should their debtors not be able to repay their loans following a natural event that damages their physical assets.

The indicator takes into account the intensity of a hazard using damage functions. For example, for a flood that is 1 m deep, damage amounting to 25% of a company’s physical assets is assumed, while for a flood that is over 2 m deep, the amount (share) of damages will be higher. Because damage functions are not currently available for all hazards, the normalised exposure at risk indicator is only provided for river flooding, coastal flooding and windstorms. The indicator also captures the probability of a hazard occurring, so it is possible to estimate expected losses. The NEAR indicator shows losses both on an annual basis and over the remaining maturity of an instrument to highlight potential differences in the maturity structure of credit institutions’ portfolios.

Like the normalised exposure at risk indicator, the collateral-adjusted exposure at risk (CEAR) indicator provides an estimate of expected losses within a credit institution’s portfolio. The difference is that this indicator also takes into account the mitigating effect of collateral pledged with a loan commitment. In terms of minimising financial losses, collateral serves as a robust mitigating factor for euro area creditors. However, it is important to note that physical collateral could be damaged following a natural disaster, and its value could fall. This is also accounted for in the calculation of the CEAR.

The NEAR and CEAR indicators are a valuable tool for comparing the economic impact of climate change across various hazards, climate scenarios and countries.

Figure 8 shows expected losses indicators – NEAR and CEAR – for loan portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia. The exposure of these loan portfolios to the risk of river flooding shows a steady increase in risk in all climate scenarios relative to historical baseline, regardless of whether expected losses are observed on an annual level (Figure 6, panel b)) or over the maturity of a loan (Figure 8, panel a)). Under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) with a projection until the end of the 21st century, the expected losses (NEAR) are estimated at almost EUR 218m over the maturity of portfolio loans, while (under the same conditions) on an annual basis, these losses are estimated to stand at EUR 60.8m.

Flood defences and collateral serve different purposes: flood defences prevent damage from occurring and thus deliver real‑economy benefits, whereas collateral primarily limits credit institutions’ credit losses without addressing the possible underlying physical damage. Both measures play an important role in reducing overall expected losses. With the implementation of flood defences and under the worst-case climate scenario with a projection until the end of the 21st century, the expected losses of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia on an annual basis (Figure 8, panel b)) decline to approximately EUR 26m (by 57%), while with collateral adjustments (in the same scenario) their expected losses decline to EUR 17.5m (by 71%).

The estimates of expected losses of credit institutions underscore the importance of investing in flood defences to mitigate the potential degradation of the economy, particularly considering the intensification of this type of physical climate risk.

Figure 8 Normalised exposure at risk (NEAR) and collateral-adjusted exposure at risk (CEAR) of loan portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia for river flooding across climate scenarios and flood defences

a) exposure of loan portfolio over the maturity

b) annual exposure of loan portfolio

Source: ESCB calculations based on data from AnaC, Statistical Business Register, financial statements of business entities (FINA), river flooding data from the Delft University of Technology, data from Joint Research Centre, and building height data from Global Human Settlement Layer.
Notes: The reference period is December 2024. Data refer to loan portfolios of credit institutions in the Republic of Croatia.

More information and data access

To access the climate change statistical indicators, please visit the ECB’s website and the CNB's website. The ECB's statistical press release with an overview of the main results for the euro area is available on the ECB's website. For further details on the methodologies, data sources and findings, consult the accompanying Statistics Paper and refer to the Technical Annex.

The aggregated data for the official statistical sustainable finance indicators are published on the ECB Data Portal as part of the CSDB-Derived Securities Issues Statistics (CSEC) and the Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) datasets:

• Securities issues (data are disclosed on a monthly basis and are disseminated around t+10 working days following the end of the reference month);
• Securities holdings (data are disclosed on a quarterly basis and are disseminated around t+2 months following the end of the reference quarter).

The aggregated data for analytical carbon emissions and transition risk indicators and for analytical physical climate risk indicators are available as compressed csv files on the ECB’s website:

• Analytical carbon emissions and transition risk indicators
• Analytical physical climate risk indicators

Analytical indicators will be updated with improvements to the methodology and the availability of additional data sources.

 

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1. Indicators are available for the following financial institutions: deposit-taking corporations except central banks (S122), non-money market fund investment funds (S124) and insurance corporations and pension funds (S128 + S129). ↑

2. Indicators at single entity and consolidated level differ according to the level of consolidation at which financial and emissions data are considered. ↑

3. Since not all greenhouse gases have the same warming effect, their emissions are converted into an amount of CO₂ emissions that would have an equivalent global warming impact over a 100-year period. ↑

4. The euro area aggregate indicators are based on data for 19 euro area countries for 2018–2022 and 20 euro area countries (including Croatia) for 2023–2024. ↑

5. Precipitation patterns include both extremely dry and extremely wet conditions. ↑

6. The RCP4.5 climate scenario corresponds to radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m² by the end of the century. It is considered a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and assumes that policies will be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. RCP8.5 assumes a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario in which no significant actions are taken to mitigate climate change, leading to radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100, and is considered a worst-case scenario. Water stress indicators involve Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), pair socio-economic pathways with corresponding climate-forcing levels. SSP3-RCP7.0 (“Regional rivalry”) describes a fragmented world with weak international cooperation, limited technological progress and high greenhouse gas emissions resulting from regionalised, inefficient development. SSP5-RCP8.5 (“Fossil-fuelled development”) depicts a globally connected, high-growth world reliant on fossil fuels, leading to very high emissions by the end of the century. ↑